For the first time in its history as an independent state, South Korea is genuinely doubting the United States' ability to fulfill its security guarantees. What is the point of bearing the consequences of Chinese economic retaliation for deploying the THAAD (American missile defense system), in the name of maintaining the alliance between the United States and South Korea, when the United States is unilaterally pulling THAAD to another corner of the world? For many South Koreans, the logical step is what Laney advises: full control over the South Korean army, which the United States currently has operational control over during wartime, developing nuclear weapons, and seeking better relations with China while reducing the level of the alliance with the United States to a trade relationship. From the US perspective, there is no good time to weaken the alliance, but this time cannot be worse. In a world where China is the United States' primary geopolitical competitor, South Korea could be the United States' most important ally. Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, is the largest US military base abroad and the closest to mainland China. A separation between the United States and South Korea is not a foregone conclusion, but to prevent this unwanted future, Washington must begin a complete reversal of its current course of imposing economic sanctions on allies and military operations that disrupt global supply chains. This complete reversal must come from all components of the US government: Congress must exercise its oversight, and the judiciary must continue to declare the unilateral tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump illegal. 'Even when the bridge is down, the gates, that is, the tariffs, are controlled by Washington, and the entire building operates according to the whims of the US President,' he added. 'It saddens me to say this... Oh my god, I never thought I would have to say this, but I believe South Korea must start to chart its future according to its own terms. US President Donald Trump has made it clear that the United States cares only about its own interests.' Laney expressed what many Korea analysts were thinking but were afraid to say: 'The alliance between the United States and South Korea is on the verge of collapse, and Washington is the guilty party.' Due to the actions of the Trump administration, Seoul must reconsider the pillars of the alliance, including the presence of US troops in South Korea, the nuclear umbrella instead of its own nuclear armament, and participation in US deterrence against China. A blatant violation Many disagree with the solution Laney proposes, but his diagnosis is indisputable: Trump showed no interest in the value of this alliance. The 25% tariffs Trump imposed on South Korean exports are a blatant violation of the 2007 US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, as well as the 2025 negotiations to set the tariffs at 15%. The latter agreement was tied to Seoul's commitment to invest up to $350 billion in American industries, but the Trump administration could not even properly accept this generous financial offer. In September 2025, US immigration authorities conducted a violent raid on a Hyundai plant under construction in Georgia, and the South Korean public watched in shock as hundreds of South Korean engineers, most of whom held valid work visas, were handcuffed on live television. Even the Chosun Ilbo, South Korea's leading conservative daily newspaper that takes a strongly pro-American stance, wrote in an editorial that the raid was 'unacceptable between allies' and raised fundamental questions about what the United States means by 'alliance.' Trump's treatment may have been the final nail in the coffin, pushing the US-South Korea alliance to the point of no return. Laney made his remarks before Trump began the war with Iran, but his warning proved to be an uncanny prediction. A high cost The war with Iran has imposed a heavy cost on South Korea, with over 70% of South Korea's crude oil imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now under siege. The oil shortage in South Korea has reached a dangerous level, with the government limiting the operation of state-owned vehicles and considering imposing restrictions on car driving—a strict measure the country has not seen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Secondary petroleum products were also affected, and South Korean refineries began to close one by one, leading to a severe shortage of raw materials for all plastic products, including paints and plastic bags. The same applies to helium, a byproduct of liquefied natural gas and a key material for manufacturing semiconductors. The South Korean stock market had been high thanks to world-leading semiconductor companies, but the possibility of not receiving about 90% of its helium imports from the Gulf region caused the market to crash. The intangible cost But the intangible cost of the war may be even harder. 'Of course, they will do it wisely and cautiously, but their interests no longer align with the interests of the White House,' Laney continued. 'What that means for command of the forces, for an independent nuclear capability, for relations with China, will require political skill and exceptional diplomatic finesse. Few American experts command the respect in South Korea that former US Ambassador to Seoul James Laney does. Laney first went to South Korea in 1947 as an army intelligence officer and returned in 1959 as a civilian. Two of his three daughters were born in the country, which was recovering from the devastation of the Korean War. After serving as president of Emory University for 16 years, Laney served as US Ambassador to Seoul from 1993 to 1997, playing a key role in defusing the North Korean nuclear crisis in 1994. Yonsei University, one of South Korea's most prestigious universities, has a building named after James Laney, as well as a lecture series in his name that features leading experts on US-Korean relations. So it was not just any news when the 98-year-old former ambassador gave a blunt assessment of the current state of the US-South Korea alliance last month while accepting the 2026 Bridge Builder Award from the Pacific Century Institute. Washington's control At an event usually filled with grandiloquent speeches, Laney's pre-recorded remarks delivered a cold analysis that left the audience, which included former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, in a state of shock: 'The United States has unilaterally turned the bridge (the US-South Korea alliance) into a drawbridge, with controls only on the American side.'
